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Author:

Zhao, Zhao (Zhao, Zhao.) | Lu, Zhao-Hui (Lu, Zhao-Hui.) | Zhang, Xuan-Yi (Zhang, Xuan-Yi.) | Zhao, Yan-Gang (Zhao, Yan-Gang.)

Indexed by:

EI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

Time-dependent system reliability analysis still faces severe challenges including the simultaneous consideration of time-dependent uncertainties under multiple failure modes and the accurate estimation of small failure probability. Therefore, this paper proposes a nested single-loop Kriging (NSLK) model coupled with subset simulation (SS) method, named NSLK-co-SS, for time-dependent system reliability assessment. Firstly, based on the rationale of SS method, the small time-dependent system failure probability is converted into the product of a series of large intermediate failure probabilities by introducing a series of intermediate failure events. Then, by reformulating the time-dependent system reliability problem as a nested system reliability one, the NSLK method is developed to estimate each intermediate failure probability. Meanwhile, a system reliability theory-based U (SYSU) learning function is proposed to identify both the best training sample and mode and sequentially update the Kriging models of multiple modes in a series of small intermediate sample pools. Two numerical examples and an engineering example were investigated to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

Keyword:

Small failure probability Subset simulation Nested single -loop Kriging model SYSU learning function Time -dependent system reliability

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhao, Zhao]Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, 1 Engn Dr 2, Singapore 117576, Singapore
  • [ 2 ] [Lu, Zhao-Hui]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Urban Secur & Disaster Engn, Minist Educ, 100 Pingleyuan, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Zhang, Xuan-Yi]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Urban Secur & Disaster Engn, Minist Educ, 100 Pingleyuan, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Zhao, Yan-Gang]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Urban Secur & Disaster Engn, Minist Educ, 100 Pingleyuan, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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Source :

RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY

ISSN: 0951-8320

Year: 2022

Volume: 228

8 . 1

JCR@2022

8 . 1 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI Discipline: ENGINEERING;

ESI HC Threshold:49

JCR Journal Grade:1

CAS Journal Grade:1

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 20

SCOPUS Cited Count: 22

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 7

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