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Author:

Granha, Mateus F. B. (Granha, Mateus F. B..) | Vilela, Andre L. M. (Vilela, Andre L. M..) | Wang, Chao (Wang, Chao.) | Nelson, Kenric P. (Nelson, Kenric P..) | Stanley, H. Eugene (Stanley, H. Eugene.)

Indexed by:

Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

We investigate financial market dynamics by introducing a heterogeneous agent-based opinion formation model. In this work, we organize individuals in a financial market according to their trading strategy, namely, whether they are noise traders or fundamentalists. The opinion of a local majority compels the market exchanging behavior of noise traders, whereas the global behavior of the market influences the decisions of fundamentalist agents. We introduce a noise parameter, q, to represent the level of anxiety and perceived uncertainty regarding market behavior, enabling the possibility of adrift financial action. We place individuals as nodes in an Erdos-Renyi random graph, where the links represent their social interactions. At any given time, individuals assume one of two possible opinion states similar to 1 regarding buying or selling an asset. The model exhibits fundamental qualitative and quantitative real-world market features such as the distribution of logarithmic returns with fat tails, clustered volatility, and the long-term correlation of returns. We use Student's t distributions to fit the histograms of logarithmic returns, showing a gradual shift from a leptokurtic to a mesokurtic regime depending on the fraction of fundamentalist agents. Furthermore, we compare our results with those concerning the distribution of the logarithmic returns of several real-world financial indices.

Keyword:

Monte Carlo simulation econophysics sociophysics complex networks phase transitions

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Granha, Mateus F. B.]Univ Pernambuco, Escola Politecn Pernambuco, Fis Mat, BR-50720001 Recife, PE, Brazil
  • [ 2 ] [Vilela, Andre L. M.]Univ Pernambuco, Escola Politecn Pernambuco, Fis Mat, BR-50720001 Recife, PE, Brazil
  • [ 3 ] [Vilela, Andre L. M.]Boston Univ, Dept Phys, Ctr Polymer Studies, Boston, MA 02215 USA
  • [ 4 ] [Stanley, H. Eugene]Boston Univ, Dept Phys, Ctr Polymer Studies, Boston, MA 02215 USA
  • [ 5 ] [Wang, Chao]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Nelson, Kenric P.]Photrek LLC, Watertown, MA 02472 USA

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Source :

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

ISSN: 0027-8424

Year: 2022

Issue: 49

Volume: 119

1 1 . 1

JCR@2022

1 1 . 1 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI Discipline: Multidisciplinary;

ESI HC Threshold:91

JCR Journal Grade:1

CAS Journal Grade:1

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 1

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