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Author:

Liu, Danni (Liu, Danni.) | Zhang, Xinfeng (Zhang, Xinfeng.) | Shi, Yongle (Shi, Yongle.) | Li, Hui (Li, Hui.)

Indexed by:

EI Scopus

Abstract:

With increasingly fierce competition in other transportation markets, the customer churn in railway freight becomes a very serious problem. Facing the high similarity and indistinguishability of railway freight data, the customer churn prediction (CCP) becomes one of the challenging tasks in this industry. In this paper, a deep forest-based model is developed which can achieve better accuracy of churn predicting in railway freight customer and effectively separate the churners from the non-churners. Inspired by the layer-by-layer processing of deep neural network, the cascade structure is adopted to the deep forest, in which the input of each layer includes the original features and the feature information processed by the previous layer. The deep forest in this paper achieves the best performance in railway freight data with the accuracy of 0.78, the precision of 0.75, the recall of 0.66, the F1-score of 0.7 and the AUC value of 0.86, which are higher than those of decision tree, AdaBoost and XGBoost. At the same time, this model has smaller standard error and makes more stable performance. © 2021, Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Keyword:

Railroads Deep neural networks Sales Forestry Multilayer neural networks Adaptive boosting Decision trees Forecasting

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Liu, Danni]Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 2 ] [Zhang, Xinfeng]Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 3 ] [Shi, Yongle]China Railway Guangzhou Group Co. Ltd., Guangzhou, China
  • [ 4 ] [Li, Hui]Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China

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Source :

ISSN: 0302-9743

Year: 2021

Volume: 12837 LNCS

Page: 479-489

Language: English

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count: 4

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 9

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