This　study　investigates　an　estimation　model　of　ground　surface　settlement　caused　by　the　excavation　of　tunnels　with　a　horseshoe-shaped　cross　section.　The　ground　surface　settlement　data　of　the　construction　of　a　subway　line　in　Changchun　was　analyzed,　and　a　model　based　on　the　simplified　equation　of　the　stochastic　medium　theory　was　established.　The　formula　for　parameter　r(H)　was　modified.　The　parameters　of　the　model　were　obtained　by　linear　regression　analysis　of　the　ground　surface　settlement　data.　Based　on　the　linear　regression　analysis　results　of　the　monitoring　data,　the　distribution　laws　of　the　parameters　in　the　model　were　obtained.　The　primary　distribution　range　for　tanβ　in　the　Changchun　area　is　0.9-1.6,　and　the　recommended　value　for　ΔA　is　8-22　mm　(β　is　the　angle　between　the　slip　surface　and　horizontal　plane　and　ΔA　is　the　uniform　convergence　value　of　the　tunnel　cross　section).　Further　analysis　of　the　proposed　model　indicates　that　with　a　good　choice　of　parameters,　a　good　estimate　of　the　ground　surface　settlement　can　be　obtained.　©　2021　SPIE