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Author:

Zhang, Wei (Zhang, Wei.) | Wu, Jiayi (Wu, Jiayi.) | Wang, Shun (Wang, Shun.) | Zhang, Yong (Zhang, Yong.) (Scholars:张勇)

Indexed by:

SSCI Scopus

Abstract:

This research aims to investigate the intricate dynamics between energy futures prices and both tropical and traditional commodities futures prices, with a particular focus on the critical role of oil futures prices in predicting the trajectory of agricultural futures prices. The study employs the Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model to analyse the interplay among oil and agricultural futures price series over 2008:01-2021:06. Additionally, it incorporates the innovative Spatio-temporal Information Recombination Hypergraph Neural Network (STIR-HGNN) model to highlight the differences in how energy futures prices predict tropical and traditional agricultural futures prices. The findings reveal numerous connections between oil prices and both tropical and traditional agricultural futures prices, underscoring the significant role of oil prices in forecasting agricultural futures price movements. The empirical insights from this study provide valuable guidance for futures market participants, encouraging them to use these findings to refine and optimize their market strategies, thus enhancing their ability to navigate and capitalize on the complexities of these interconnected markets.

Keyword:

Oil futures markets STIR-HGNN model DCC-MGARCH model agricultural futures prices forecast

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhang, Wei]China Agr Univ, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Wu, Jiayi]Beijing Inst Artificial Intelligence, Beijing Key Lab Multimedia & Intelligent Software, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Wang, Shun]Beijing Inst Artificial Intelligence, Beijing Key Lab Multimedia & Intelligent Software, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Zhang, Yong]Beijing Inst Artificial Intelligence, Beijing Key Lab Multimedia & Intelligent Software, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Wu, Jiayi]Beijing Univ Technol, Dept Informat Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Wang, Shun]Beijing Univ Technol, Dept Informat Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Zhang, Yong]Beijing Univ Technol, Dept Informat Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Zhang, Yong]Beijing Univ Technol, Beijing Inst Artificial Intelligence, Dept Informat Sci, Beijing Key Lab Multimedia & Intelligent Software, Pingleyuan 100,Chaoyang Dist, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China;;

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Source :

APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS

ISSN: 1350-4851

Year: 2024

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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