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Author:

Zhang, W. (Zhang, W..) | Wu, J. (Wu, J..) | Wang, S. (Wang, S..) | Zhang, Y. (Zhang, Y..)

Indexed by:

SSCI Scopus

Abstract:

This research aims to explore the complex dynamics governing the correlation between oil futures prices and Chinese agricultural futures prices, with a specific emphasis on unveiling the crucial role played by oil futures prices in predicting the trajectory of agricultural futures prices. The study utilizes the Vector Error Correction-Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (VEC-DCC-MGARCH) model to dissect the interplay among oil, soybean, and corn price series. Additionally, this study integrates the innovative Spatio-temporal Information Recombination Hypergraph Neural Network (STIR-HGNN) model to analyze how oil futures prices contribute to improving the accuracy of forecasting agricultural product prices. Findings indicate numerous connections between oil prices and agricultural futures prices, highlighting the significant role of oil prices in forecasting agricultural futures price movements. The empirical insights derived from this study serve as a valuable compass for futures market participants, urging them to leverage these findings to refine and optimize their market strategies, enhancing their capacity to navigate and capitalize on the intricate complexities inherent in these interconnected markets. © 2024 Elsevier Inc.

Keyword:

VEC-DCC-MGARCH model Oil futures markets Agricultural futures prices forecast STIR-HGNN model

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhang W.]College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100083, China
  • [ 2 ] [Wu J.]Beijing Key Laboratory of Multimedia and Intelligent Software Technology, Beijing Institute of Artificial Intelligence, School of Information Science and Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China
  • [ 3 ] [Wang S.]Beijing Key Laboratory of Multimedia and Intelligent Software Technology, Beijing Institute of Artificial Intelligence, School of Information Science and Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China
  • [ 4 ] [Zhang Y.]Beijing Key Laboratory of Multimedia and Intelligent Software Technology, Beijing Institute of Artificial Intelligence, School of Information Science and Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China

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Source :

International Review of Financial Analysis

ISSN: 1057-5219

Year: 2025

Volume: 97

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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