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Author:

Hu Zhiqiang (Hu Zhiqiang.) | Li Wenjing (Li Wenjing.) | Qiao Junfei (Qiao Junfei.) (Scholars:乔俊飞)

Indexed by:

CPCI-S

Abstract:

PM2.5 is difficult to accurately forecast due to the influence of multiple meteorological and pollutant variables in the complex nonlinear dynamic atmosphere system. In this paper, an Elman neural network prediction method based on chaos theory is put forward for the problem. Firstly, the chaotic characteristics of the concentration of the PM2.5 are analyzed and verified from the correlation dimension, the maximum Lyapunov exponent and the Kolmogorov entropy. Then, phase space reconstruction technique of chaotic theory is adopted to reconstruct the phase space of PM2.5 time series. The reconstructed phase space and the future concentration of PM2.5 are taken as the input and output of the Elman neural network with chaos theory (Elman-chaos) respectively. The numerical and experimental analyses show that this method is proportionally superior to that without considering the chaos characteristics and other approaches. The Elman-chaos prediction model has better prediction performance and application value.

Keyword:

Prediction Elman neural network Phase space reconstruction PM2.5 Chaos

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Hu Zhiqiang]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Elect Informat & Control Engn, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Li Wenjing]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Elect Informat & Control Engn, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Qiao Junfei]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Elect Informat & Control Engn, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Hu Zhiqiang]Beijing Key Lab Computat Intelligence & Intellige, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Li Wenjing]Beijing Key Lab Computat Intelligence & Intellige, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Qiao Junfei]Beijing Key Lab Computat Intelligence & Intellige, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Hu Zhiqiang]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Elect Informat & Control Engn, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China;;[Hu Zhiqiang]Beijing Key Lab Computat Intelligence & Intellige, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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Source :

PROCEEDINGS OF THE 35TH CHINESE CONTROL CONFERENCE 2016

ISSN: 2161-2927

Year: 2016

Page: 3573-3578

Language: English

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 6

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 6

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