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Author:

Xie, Xiaoyu (Xie, Xiaoyu.) | Zhu, Heliang (Zhu, Heliang.) (Scholars:祝合良)

Indexed by:

SSCI Scopus

Abstract:

This paper studies the co-integration relationship and volatility spillover effect between China's gold futures and spot prices through the VECM-BEKK-GARCH model. Then, MSGARCH and DCCE-GARCH are applied to study the relationship among China's gold futures market, spot market price volatility and the stabilization effect in uncertain economic environments. This paper enriches the current research, providing gold market participants with hints to address economic uncertainty. The empirical results show that China's gold futures market has a weak stabilization effect on spot price volatility. In scenarios with uncertain economic information and uncertain macroeconomic changes, the correlation between gold futures and spot price volatility is reduced in China, and the role of gold futures in stabilizing the spot price weakens. Furthermore, with economic uncertainty, the fluctuation range of the gold futures price is greater than that of the spot price, with a tendency of more frequent fluctuations. This also means that the effectiveness of the futures market in regulating the spot price will be reduced, and gold market regulators need to stabilize the market through alternative methods to futures.

Keyword:

Gold futures Gold spot price Economic uncertainty GARCH model

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Xie, Xiaoyu]Capital Univ Econ & Business, Beijing 100070, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Zhu, Heliang]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ &Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • 祝合良

    [Zhu, Heliang]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ &Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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Source :

RESEARCH IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS AND FINANCE

ISSN: 0275-5319

Year: 2021

Volume: 56

JCR Journal Grade:1

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 0

SCOPUS Cited Count: 6

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 11

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