Accelerating　the　＂double　carbon＂　transformation　of　the　manufacturing　industry　is　the　key　to　achieving　the　strategic　goal　of　＂double　carbon＂　in　China,　among　which　the　low-carbon　development　of　the　Beijing　manufacturing　industry　is　the　top　priority.　To　achieve　high-quality　development　of　the　manufacturing　industry　in　Beijing,　the　main　task　is　to　reduce　carbon　emissions　and　improve　efficiency.　Therefore,　on　the　basis　of　the　Global　Malmquist-Luenberger　(GML)　index　and　the　system　dynamics　(SD)　method,　this　study　analyzes　the　green　total-factor　energy　efficiency　trends　of　25　manufacturing　sub-sectors　in　Beijing　from　2006　to　2020　and　incorporates　the　GML　index　as　a　key　variable　into　the　construction　of　the　SD　model.　It　then　explores　the　path　optimization　of　Beijing＇s　manufacturing　low-carbon　development　in　the　14th　Five-Year　Plan　period　via　scenario　simulation　and　offers　policy　recommendations　for　the　green-oriented　transition　of　Beijing＇s　manufacturing　industry.　The　study　finds　that　Beijing＇s　manufacturing　industry　needs　to　prioritize　energy　structure　optimization　and　efficient　energy　utilization　and　give　full　play　to　the　city＇s　advantages　in　technological　innovation　and　investment　while　supporting　high-end　scientific　research　and　innovation　projects　to　confirm　the　capital　city＇s　strategic　position.