For　evaluating　the　post-earthquake　failure　probability　of　the　immersed　tunnel　of　Hong　Kong-Zhuhai-Macao　Bridge　subjected　transverse　earthquake　loading.　A　two-dimensional　(2-D)　finite　element　model　considering　the　water-soil-tunnel　interaction　has　been　built　based　on　the　Abaqus　software　platform,　and　a　more　refined　three-dimensional(3-D)　model　was　built　to　examine　the　preciseness　of　the　2-D　model　in　calculating　the　displacement　response　of　immersed　tunnel.　The　seismic　damage　evaluation　of　immersed　tunnel　was　presented　based　the　numerical　analysis　results　of　3-D　model,　and　it　indicated　the　IDR　is　significant　related　to　the　damage　level　of　tunnel.　The　inter-story　drift　ratio　limits　of　immersed　tunnel　were　defined　based　on　the　seismic　performance　curve　obtained　from　the　Pushover　analysis.　The　non-linear　dynamic　analysis　was　performed　for　the　2-D　model　subjected　different　amplitude-modulated　earthquake　records　according　to　the　incremental　dynamical　analysis　(IDA)　procedure.　The　IDA　curve　cluster　and　corresponding　16　%,　50　%,　84　%　percentile　lines　were　plotted　by　defining　the　damage　measure　as　the　inter-story　drift　ratio,　and　employing　the　PGA　to　describe　the　intensity　measures.　The　probability　of　the　immersed　tunnel　exceeding　different　seismic　performance　level　subjected　different　earthquake　intensity　have　been　given,　and　the　finding　shown　the　immersed　tunnel　perform　enjoying　good　seismic　performance.　©　2024　Elsevier　Ltd