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Author:

Xie, Yi (Xie, Yi.) | Zhang, Ziheng (Zhang, Ziheng.) | Wu, Yan (Wu, Yan.) | Li, Shuang (Li, Shuang.) | Pang, Liuyong (Pang, Liuyong.) | Li, Yong (Li, Yong.)

Indexed by:

Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

We analyze a time-delayed SIQR model that considers transportation-related infection and entry-exit screening. This model aims to determine the measures for preventing and controlling major emergent infectious diseases and the associated costs. We calculate the basic reproduction number (R0) and prove that the disease-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable. We collect COVID-19 infection data from two regions in the United States in 2020 for data fitting, obtain a set of optimal parameter values, and find that transportation-related infection rates increase the basic reproduction number, enhancing the impact on disease spread. Entry-exit screening effectively suppresses the spread of disease by reducing the basic reproduction number. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of the incubation period on disease and find that a shorter incubation period results in a shorter duration but a larger scale of infection and that the peaks are reduced. We conduct a sensitivity analysis of the R0 and propose three measures to prevent the spread of new infectious diseases based on the most sensitive parameters: wearing masks, implementing urban closures, and administering medication to sick but not yet hospitalized patients promptly. In the case of COVID-19, optimal control effectively controls the development and deterioration of the disease. Finally, several control measures are compared through cost-effectiveness analysis, and the results show that wearing masks is the most cost-effective measure.

Keyword:

transportation-related infection basic reproduction number optimal control cost-effectiveness entry-exit screening

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Xie, Yi]Yangtze Univ, Sch Informat & Math, Jingzhou 434023, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Li, Yong]Yangtze Univ, Sch Informat & Math, Jingzhou 434023, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Zhang, Ziheng]Univ Manchester, Sch Environm Educ & Dev SEED, Manchester M13 9PL, England
  • [ 4 ] [Wu, Yan]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Appl Sci, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Li, Shuang]Henan Normal Univ, Coll Math & Informat Sci, Xinxiang 453007, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Pang, Liuyong]Huanghuai Univ, Sch Math & Stat, Zhumadian 463000, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Li, Yong]Yangtze Univ, Sch Informat & Math, Jingzhou 434023, Peoples R China;;

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Source :

MATHEMATICS

Year: 2024

Issue: 13

Volume: 12

2 . 4 0 0

JCR@2022

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 1

SCOPUS Cited Count: 1

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 9

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