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Author:

Xue, Huidan (Xue, Huidan.) | Du, Yuxuan (Du, Yuxuan.) | Gao, Yirui (Gao, Yirui.) | Su, Wen-Hao (Su, Wen-Hao.)

Indexed by:

Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

The global food market's escalating volatility has led to a complex network of uncertainty and risk transmission across different grain markets. This study utilizes the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR)-Connectedness approach to analyze the price transmission and volatility dynamics of key grains, including wheat, maize, rice, barley, peanut, soybean, and soybean meal, and their dynamic spillover directions, intensity, and network. By integrating the TVP-VAR-Connectedness model, this research captures the time-varying variability and interconnected nature of global grain price movements. The main findings reveal significant spillover effects, particularly in corn prices, with prices of soybean dominating other grains while prices of peanut and corn experience higher external spillover effects from other grains. The conclusions drawn underscore the imperative for policymakers to consider a holistic perspective of all types of grains when addressing global food security, with this study providing valuable insights for risk management in the grain sector at both global level and country level.

Keyword:

volatility spillover grain prices price transmission global grain markets TVP-VAR-Connectedness model

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Xue, Huidan]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Du, Yuxuan]Beijing Univ Technol, Beijing Dublin Int Coll BJUT, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Gao, Yirui]Beijing Univ Technol, Beijing Dublin Int Coll BJUT, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Su, Wen-Hao]China Agr Univ, Coll Engn, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Su, Wen-Hao]China Agr Univ, Coll Engn, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China;;

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Source :

FOODS

Year: 2024

Issue: 20

Volume: 13

5 . 2 0 0

JCR@2022

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 1

SCOPUS Cited Count: 1

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 7

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