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Author:

Mu, Xian-Zhong (Mu, Xian-Zhong.) (Scholars:穆献中) | Li, Guo-Hao (Li, Guo-Hao.) | Hu, Guang-Wen (Hu, Guang-Wen.)

Indexed by:

Scopus SCIE CSCD

Abstract:

Based on the study of the relationship between structure and feedback of China's natural gas demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption structure of natural gas in China, we set up seven scenarios by changing some of the parameters of the model. The results showed that the total demand of natural gas would increase steadily year by year and reach in the range from 3600 to 4500 billion cubic meters in 2035. Furthermore, in terms of consumption structure, urban gas consumption would still be the largest term, followed by the gas consumption as industrial fuel, gas power generation and natural gas chemical industry. In addition, compared with the population growth, economic development still plays a dominant role in the natural gas demand growth, the impact of urbanization on urban gas consumption is significant, and the promotion of natural gas utilization technology can effectively reduce the total consumption of natural gas.

Keyword:

Natural gas demand system Scenario prediction System dynamics Consumption structure

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Mu, Xian-Zhong]Beijing Univ Technol, Inst Recycling Econ, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Li, Guo-Hao]Beijing Univ Technol, Inst Recycling Econ, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Hu, Guang-Wen]Beijing Univ Technol, Inst Recycling Econ, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Hu, Guang-Wen]Beijing Univ Technol, Inst Recycling Econ, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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Source :

PETROLEUM SCIENCE

ISSN: 1672-5107

Year: 2018

Issue: 4

Volume: 15

Page: 912-924

5 . 6 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI Discipline: GEOSCIENCES;

ESI HC Threshold:139

JCR Journal Grade:3

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 11

SCOPUS Cited Count: 17

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 6

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