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Author:

Cui, C. (Cui, C..) | Xu, M. (Xu, M..) | Xu, C. (Xu, C..) | Zhao, J. (Zhao, J..) | Liu, H. (Liu, H..) | Meng, K. (Meng, K..)

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Scopus

Abstract:

To avoid the epistemic uncertainty for seismic fragility of subway station structures caused by the incomplete seismic demand sample set, a novel procedure of seismic fragility analysis of subway station structures considering the statistical uncertainty of seismic demands is proposed. The limited set of seismic demand samples is firstly converted into a large sample problem based on the Bootstrap method. Then, the joint probability distribution model of statistical uncertainty variables is further established by combining the maximum entropy principle with the copula theory. On this basis, the variability of seismic fragility of subway station structures caused by the statistical uncertainty of seismic demands is further quantified, and the mean fragility curves and envelope fragility curves with certain confidence level are obtained. Finally, the Daikai subway station is taken as the prototype to investigate the influences of the statistical uncertainty. The results show that the seismic fragility of subway station structures derived from the limited seismic demand samples has significant variability which shows a tendency of increase and then decrease with the increase of the ground motion intensity. Moreover, the mean fragility curves and envelope fragility curves can effectively reflect the uncertainty of seismic fragility derived from the limited seismic demand samples, and have higher reliability. It may provide reference and guidance for the seismic performance and seismic risk assessment of subway station structures. © 2025 Chinese Society of Civil Engineering. All rights reserved.

Keyword:

seismic fragility Bootstrap method subway station structure epistemic uncertainty maximum entropy principle

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Cui C.]Department of Civil Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, 116026, China
  • [ 2 ] [Xu M.]Department of Civil Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, 116026, China
  • [ 3 ] [Xu C.]Key Laboratory of Urban Security and Disaster Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China
  • [ 4 ] [Zhao J.]Department of Civil Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, 116026, China
  • [ 5 ] [Liu H.]Department of Civil Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, 116026, China
  • [ 6 ] [Meng K.]College of Transportation, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266590, China

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Source :

Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering

ISSN: 1000-4548

Year: 2025

Issue: 3

Volume: 47

Page: 453-462

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 8

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