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Author:

Li, Xin (Li, Xin.) | Xie, Qianqian (Xie, Qianqian.) | Daim, Tugrul (Daim, Tugrul.) | Huang, Lucheng (Huang, Lucheng.) (Scholars:黄鲁成)

Indexed by:

SSCI EI Scopus

Abstract:

How to detect and identify the future trends of emerging technologies as early as possible is crucial for government R&D strategic planning and enterprises' practices. To avoid the weakness of using only scientific papers or patents to study the development trends of emerging technologies, this paper proposes a framework that uses scientific papers and patents as data resources and integrates the text mining and expert judgment approaches to identify technology evolution paths and forecast technology development trends within the short term. The perovskite solar cell technology is selected as a case study. In this case, the text mining and expert judgment methods are applied to analyze the technology evolution path, and gaps analysis between science and technology is used to forecast the technology development trend. This paper will contribute to the technology forecasting and foresight methodology, and will be of interest to solar photovoltaic technology R&D experts.

Keyword:

Perovskite solar cell technology Text mining Technology trend Technology forecasting

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Li, Xin]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Xie, Qianqian]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Huang, Lucheng]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Daim, Tugrul]Portland State Univ, Dept Engn & Technol Management, Portland, OR 97207 USA
  • [ 5 ] [Daim, Tugrul]Natl Res Univ Higher Sch Econ, Moscow, Russia
  • [ 6 ] [Daim, Tugrul]Chaoyang Univ Technol, Taichung, Taiwan

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Daim, Tugrul]Portland State Univ, Dept Engn & Technol Management, Portland, OR 97207 USA

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Source :

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE

ISSN: 0040-1625

Year: 2019

Volume: 146

Page: 432-449

ESI Discipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES, GENERAL;

ESI HC Threshold:84

JCR Journal Grade:1

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 0

SCOPUS Cited Count: 109

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 10

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