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Author:

Zubillaga, Bernardo J. (Zubillaga, Bernardo J..) | Vilela, Andre L. M. (Vilela, Andre L. M..) | Wang, Chao (Wang, Chao.) (Scholars:王超) | Nelson, Kenric P. (Nelson, Kenric P..) | Stanley, H. Eugene (Stanley, H. Eugene.)

Indexed by:

SSCI EI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

We propose a three-state microscopic opinion formation model for the purpose of simulating the dynamics of financial markets. In order to mimic the heterogeneous composition of the mass of investors in a market, the agent-based model considers two different types of traders: noise traders and noise contrarians. Agents are represented as nodes in a network of interactions and they can assume any of three distinct possible states. The time evolution of the state of an agent is dictated by probabilistic dynamics that include both local and global influences. A noise trader is subject to local interactions, tending to assume the majority state of its nearest neighbors, whilst a noise contrarian is subject to a global interaction with the behavior of the market as a whole, tending to assume the state of the global minority of the market. The model exhibits the typical qualitative and quantitative features of real financial time series, including distributions of returns with heavy tails, volatility clustering and long-time memory for the absolute values of the returns. The distributions of returns are fitted by means of coupled Gaussian distributions, quantitatively revealing transitions between leptokurtic, mesokurtic and platykurtic regimes in terms of a non-linear statistical coupling which describes the complexity of the system. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keyword:

Monte Carlo simulation Critical phenomena Econophysics Sociophysics Phase transition

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Zubillaga, Bernardo J.]Boston Univ, Ctr Polymer Studies, Boston, MA 02115 USA
  • [ 2 ] [Vilela, Andre L. M.]Boston Univ, Ctr Polymer Studies, Boston, MA 02115 USA
  • [ 3 ] [Wang, Chao]Boston Univ, Ctr Polymer Studies, Boston, MA 02115 USA
  • [ 4 ] [Nelson, Kenric P.]Boston Univ, Ctr Polymer Studies, Boston, MA 02115 USA
  • [ 5 ] [Stanley, H. Eugene]Boston Univ, Ctr Polymer Studies, Boston, MA 02115 USA
  • [ 6 ] [Zubillaga, Bernardo J.]Boston Univ, Dept Phys, Boston, MA 02115 USA
  • [ 7 ] [Vilela, Andre L. M.]Boston Univ, Dept Phys, Boston, MA 02115 USA
  • [ 8 ] [Wang, Chao]Boston Univ, Dept Phys, Boston, MA 02115 USA
  • [ 9 ] [Nelson, Kenric P.]Boston Univ, Dept Phys, Boston, MA 02115 USA
  • [ 10 ] [Stanley, H. Eugene]Boston Univ, Dept Phys, Boston, MA 02115 USA
  • [ 11 ] [Vilela, Andre L. M.]Univ Pernambuco, Fis Mat, BR-50100010 Recife, PE, Brazil
  • [ 12 ] [Wang, Chao]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 13 ] [Nelson, Kenric P.]Boston Univ, Elect & Comp Engn, Boston, MA 02215 USA

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Source :

PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS

ISSN: 0378-4371

Year: 2021

Volume: 588

3 . 3 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI Discipline: PHYSICS;

ESI HC Threshold:72

JCR Journal Grade:2

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 9

SCOPUS Cited Count: 12

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 7

Affiliated Colleges:

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